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Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff Writer
For the most part, what we believe heading into a given season is whatever we believed at the end of the season before. Take the preseason coaches’ poll released last week: Among this year’s top 11 teams are nine that finished last year in the top 10. It took last year’s No. 2 Washington losing its head coach, coordinators, star quarterback and 20 of 22 starters for the Huskies not to start the season ranked pretty high.
There are surprises every year, however. Last season was in no way the most unpredictable year the sport has ever seen, but only half the preseason top 10 finished in the top 10. Two of four College Football Playoff teams began outside the top 10 (albeit in 11th and 12th). Missouri finished the season 11-2 and eighth after going 23-25 over the previous four years. Arizona finished 10-3 and 11th after going just 10-31 over the previous four seasons.
There are always unexpected breakthroughs and unforeseen collapses. Each year, one of the primary preseason questions is: Which of the teams that enjoyed huge surges or huge stumbles the year before will sustain their gains or rebound with vigor?
That’s the purpose of this piece. Last year, among my six teams most likely to improve further were Texas, Washington, Florida State and Kansas, teams that went from a combined 31-17 to 48-8. The “most likely to rebound” list wasn’t as much of a demonstrative success, but among the six teams mentioned were four (Boston College, Colorado, Colorado State and Texas A&M) that combined to improve from a combined 12-36 to 23-27.
The final preseason SP+ projections are coming next week. But using last year’s numbers and general trends, we can begin piecing together the national picture. Which of 2023’s unexpected breakthroughs might find even further heights? Which of last year’s disappointments are likeliest to bounce back? Let’s take a look.
Teams most likely to sustain 2023 gains
Over the past 10 years, we’ve seen an average of 1.9 teams per year improve by at least 20 adjusted points per game in my SP+ ratings, and we’ve seen an average of 18.1 teams improve by at least 10. (Thus far, these numbers haven’t changed significantly in the transfer portal era: Over the past two seasons, an average of 1.5 teams have improved by at least 20 points, 19.5 by at least 10. No one improved by more than 20 points last season.)
Of the 19 teams that improved by at least 20 points in this sample, 12 (63%) saw their ratings regress the next season. Of the 164 teams that improved by at least 10 points (not including the 17 who did it last year), 99 (60%) regressed, 53 by at least a touchdown per game (32%). Last year’s numbers weren’t far off this trend: 20 teams improved significantly in 2022, 11 got worse in 2023 (55%) and eight got significantly worse (40%).
In 2023, 17 teams improved by at least 10 points. Based on what we’ve seen in recent years, about 40% of them — six or seven — will improve further this fall. Below are the likeliest candidates.
2022: 10-3 record, 17th in SP+ (+14.6 adjusted PPG, or 14.6 points better than the average college football team)
2023: 12-2, third (+26.2)
2024 projection (as of May): 10.4 average wins, third in SP+ (+30.8)
Dan Lanning’s Ducks dominated almost everyone in 2023 but couldn’t figure out a way past Kalen DeBoer’s Washington; they were 0-2 against the Huskies and 12-0 against everyone else with only one one-score win and nine games decided by at least 24 points. That’s how you end up third in SP+ with two losses.
Granted, there’s not much more room for the Ducks to rise, but with super-transfer Dillon Gabriel replacing Bo Nix at quarterback, stars such as receiver Tez Johnson and linebackers Jeffrey Bassa and Jestin Jacobs returning and transfers filling in gaps on the defensive line and in the secondary, it sure seems like they’ve got top-three potential once again. SP+ ranks them third, and there are only two games in which they’re a projected favorite of under 17 points: Ohio State’s Week 7 visit to Eugene and the Ducks’ Week 10 trip to Michigan. Go 1-for-2 in those games, and you’re entering the Big Ten championship all but assured of a College Football Playoff bid.
2022: 5-7, 71st in SP+ (-2.6 adjusted PPG)
2023: 7-6, 28th (+9.6)
2024 projection (as of May): 8.8 average wins, 19th in SP+ (+14.4)
As I wrote in this week’s Most Important Players list, we’ve stepped on this rake before. Considering how many games Miami has given away recently — literally, in some cases — it’s hard to trust that the Hurricanes will turn potential into production. But we said the same thing about Texas last season, and then, poof, the Longhorns broke through.
The transfer portal has certainly raised Miami’s ceiling this offseason. Quarterback Cam Ward (Washington State) and running back Damien Martinez (Oregon State) give the Canes one of the most dynamic offensive backfields in the country, and transfers such as defensive ends Elijah Alston (Marshall) and Tyler Baron (Tennessee), tackles Marley Cook (MTSU) and Simeon Barrow Jr. (Michigan State) and safety Mishael Powell (Washington) should prop up a defense that lost quite a few of last year’s players but returns star tackle Rueben Bain Jr. There’s plenty to like here, and if game management improves to at least an average level, Miami’s schedule, which features only one projected top-25 team (Florida State in Week 9), should provide an opportunity to ratchet up the win total.
2022: 3-8 record, 91st in SP+ (-7.5 adjusted PPG)
2023: 7-6, 46th (+5.8)
2024 projection (as of May): 8.4 average wins, 32nd in SP+ (+9.7)
Brent Pry’s Hokies are obvious candidates for a list like this: They surged over the second half of 2023 and return most of the reasons for said surge. Quarterback Kyron Drones and running back Bhayshul Tuten give Tech a dynamic run game, and 19 overall starters return. Contending in the ACC will require further improvement in the trenches — never guaranteed — but per SP+ the Hokies are projected underdogs in only two games (at Miami in Week 5, Clemson at home in Week 11).
After so much consistent success in the 1990s and 2000s, Virginia Tech has found life a little rockier of late. The Hokies haven’t finished in the SP+ top 30 since 2017, and they’ve done so only twice in the past 12 seasons. They lost 12 of Pry’s first 17 games in charge, but they won five of seven down the stretch, and Drones gives them legitimate star power behind center. There’s serious reason for optimism in Blacksburg.
2022: 4-8 record, 92nd in SP+ (-8.1 adjusted PPG)
2023: 7-6, 56th (+3.5)
2024 projection (as of May): 6.4 average wins, 49th in SP+ (+3.9)
Rutgers won seven games for the first time in nine years last fall, and with a schedule that features eight straight SP+ top-50 opponents, the Scarlet Knights might need to improve to a top-40 level to hit eight wins or more. They haven’t been top-40 since 2009. It will be a surprise if they don’t sustain last season’s gains, though. The offense went from awful to merely poor, and the defense went from decent to good. That’s a recipe Greg Schiano can replicate.
Rutgers returns eight defensive starters, including corner Robert Longerbeam and most of a strong secondary. But the offense remains the question mark. Even with 1,200-yard rusher Kyle Monangai, the Scarlet Knights improved to only 97th in offensive SP+ in 2023, and although transfer quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis (Minnesota) has experience with offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca, upside seems questionable. Regardless, odds of another bowl bid are solid.
2022: 5-7 record, 105th in SP+ (-12.6 adjusted PPG)
2023: 7-6, 65th (+0.3)
2024 projection (as of May): 4.2 average wins, 63rd in SP+ (-0.6)
Brent Key’s Yellow Jackets pulled a reverse Rutgers, scoring their first bowl bid in five years because of offense. Thanks to quarterback Haynes King, 1,000-yard rusher Jamal Haynes and an exciting young receiving corps led by Eric Singleton Jr. and Malik Rutherford, Tech jumped from 122nd to 50th in offensive SP+, offsetting a dire defense (86th) enough to win seven games.
As with Rutgers, Tech’s schedule will likely prevent improvement in the wins department. The Jackets play teams currently projected first (Georgia), 10th (Notre Dame) and 12th (Florida State) and face four others from 19th to 32nd. If the defense finds any traction whatsoever — and with only eight of 16 defenders with 300-plus snaps returning and a heavy onus being placed on transfers for said improvement, it’s not guaranteed — Tech could improve further in 2024. But the win total might not reflect it.
2022: 1-11 record, 126th in SP+ (-24.0 adjusted PPG)
2023: 4-8, 81st (-4.9)
2024 projection (as of May): 3.8 average wins, 69th in SP+ (-2.5)
It’s difficult to talk about Colorado in a constructive way at the moment. On one hand, Deion Sanders’ transfer-dependent Buffaloes were boosted by false hype early in 2023; they found themselves in the AP top 20 and earned millions of headlines, page views and celebrity visits during a 3-0 start, but the teams they beat all finished the season with losing records. Once the real opponents showed up on the schedule, the wins stopped.
On the other hand, finishing 4-8 and ranking 81st in SP+ last season was still a massive step forward for what in 2022 was almost the worst team in the country.
Now, heading into 2024, they’re once again receiving hype they haven’t earned — this time primarily from the EA Sports College Football 25 game that lavished high rankings on quarterback Shedeur Sanders and do-everything Travis Hunter and made them one of the 20 most talented teams in the game. But they almost certainly aren’t a top-20 team. Improving into the 50s or 60s might not make much of a difference in the win total, but it would still represent improvement, and it still gets them on this list.
2022: 3-9 record, 124th in SP+ (-23.0 adjusted PPG)
2023: 5-7, 98th (-8.9)
2024 projection (as of May): 6.0 average wins, 98th in SP+ (-9.8)
Colorado’s most famous win of 2023 might have been its wild overtime comeback over CSU in Week 3. It was a high point for the Buffs and a bit of a low point for the Rams. Following an 0-2 start, CSU turned things around a bit, playing .500 ball and jumping back into the SP+ top 100 after a 2022 collapse. The bar is low here, but the Rams will have a solid opportunity to rebound further. Quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi showed solid efficiency potential as a redshirt freshman, and he’ll again have star receiver Tory Horton lined up wide. Head coach Jay Norvell added a couple of potential big play threats from the portal, too, in Armani Winfield (Baylor) and Donovan Ollie (Cincy).
The bar is low for the defense, but 10 returning defenders started at least one game last year, and SP+ gives the Rams a 64% chance of reaching bowl eligibility for the first time since 2017.
Teams most likely to rebound from a 2023 stumble
As you might expect in a zero-sum universe, the numbers are about the same for teams that stumble in a given season. Over the past 10 years, an average of 1.7 teams have collapsed by at least 20 adjusted points per game in SP+, and an average of 17.7 have fallen by at least 10 points. Of the 17 that suffered massive falls, 11 (65%) rebounded to some degree, and six (35%) improved by at least a touchdown. And of the 162 that fell by at least 10 points (not including last year’s batch of 15 teams), 110 (68%) improved the next year, 60 (37%) by at least a touchdown.
Interestingly, the numbers have shifted at least a bit over the past couple of years. Only one team fell by more than 20 points (2022 Nevada, which sank even further in 2023), and only an average of 14 fell by 10 or more. Maybe the portal allows teams to fill holes a bit better and prevents quite as many significant collapses? It’s far too early to declare a new trend, but it’s something to watch moving forward.
Regardless, let’s continue to assume that about 65% of last year’s 15 primary collapses (nine or 10) are followed by a rebound and 35% (five or six) produce a particularly large rebound. Here are the most likely major rebounders.
2022: 11-2 record, fifth in SP+ (+28.1 adjusted PPG)
2023: 9-4, 14th (+16.2)
2024 projection (as of May): 8.6 average wins, 16th in SP+ (+19.0)
You know your program is in pretty good shape when winning nine games and finishing 14th in SP+ is a solid drop-off. Josh Heupel’s Volunteers indeed saw their number slip, primarily because of an offense that fell from first to 18th in offensive SP+. The Vols still scored plenty of points, but the big-play well dried up, at least temporarily.
There’s no certainty that blue-chip sophomore Nico Iamaleava is ready to quarterback a top-five offense this fall, and as their No. 16 overall projected ranking suggests, improvement is not guaranteed. But with leading receiver Squirrel White and veteran Bru McCoy returning and intriguing big-play transfers Chris Brazzell II (Tulane) and Tommy Winton III (ETSU) joining the party, the ceiling is immensely high. The defense has played at a solid top-25 level for two straight years and boasts maybe the best defender in the country in James Pearce Jr. By SEC standards, the schedule is manageable with only four projected top-25 teams on the docket.
2022: 9-4 record, eighth in SP+ (+19.3 adjusted PPG)
2023: 6-7, 63rd (+0.4)
2024 projection (as of May): 5.6 average wins, 45th in SP+ (+4.8)
SP+ loved Minnesota’s 2022 squad; the Gophers finished fourth in defensive SP+ for the second straight season, and they were held back only by quarterback injury and a brief offensive funk that October. They seemed close to something excellent in 2023, but the defense fell from great to good (31st in defensive SP+ last year), the offense plummeted from average (52nd) to awful (103rd), and the win total got cut by one-third.
Last year’s defense, pretty reliant on freshmen and sophomores, should improve by a decent amount, but a major rebound for the Gophers will depend on the remodeled offense. Coach P.J. Fleck retained co-coordinators Greg Harbaugh Jr. and Matt Simon but brought in two new quarterbacks, four new running backs and a couple of new receivers. With newcomers such as QB Max Brosmer (New Hampshire) and holdovers like go-to receiver Daniel Jackson and running back Darius Taylor, the floor should be higher this year. But a schedule featuring six projected top-30 opponents means that the win total might not rebound significantly even if the team improves as expected.
2022: 6-7 record, 34th in SP+ (+10.2 adjusted PPG)
2023: 3-9, 97th (-8.3)
2024 projection (as of May): 5.3 average wins, 61st in SP+ (+0.5)
For better or (often) worse, Baylor has not sat still under Dave Aranda. The Bears have either risen or fallen by at least 39 spots in SP+ for three of his four seasons in charge, and if there’s good news, it’s that after plummeting to 97th last year, if they’re to pull off another move like that in 2024 it almost has to be upward.
Aranda was pretty urgent in his attempts to turn things around this offseason, hiring offensive coordinator Jake Spavital (his third OC in five years) and bringing in potential new starters at quarterback (Toledo’s Dequan Finn) and receiver (Texas State’s Ashtyn Hawkins) and throughout the offensive line and secondary. The Bears are projected to improve back to respectability, but it won’t take much overachievement for them to rise quickly up the cluttered Big 12 ladder. Almost no outcome would be very surprising this year, be it another poor season and a firing or a huge rebound and Big 12 contention.
2022: 9-4 record, 33rd in SP+ (+10.3 adjusted PPG)
2023: 3-9, 87th (-6.8)
2024 projection (as of May): 5.1 average wins, 70th in SP+ (-2.6)
Timing your power conference jump is hard sometimes. After reaching the CFP as an AAC team in 2021, Cincinnati slipped outside the SP+ top 30 and then lost head coach Luke Fickell just as it was time to join the Big 12. The Bearcats rejoined the power conference ranks with their worst team in at least six years. Throw in a 1-4 record in one-score finishes, and Scott Satterfield’s first season was an abject disaster.
Most of the Bearcats’ best players return (running back Corey Kiner, receiver Xzavier Henderson, defensive tackle Dontay Corleone, linebacker Jack Dingle), and Satterfield was not shy about addressing needs in the portal, bringing in 25 transfers. This should be a deeper and more talented team, and hey, the bar’s really, really low after going 3-9. A fast start — the Bearcats are projected favorites in three of their first four games — could prompt a lovely turnaround story.
2022: 7-6 record, 72nd in SP+ (-3.1 adjusted PPG)
2023: 4-8, 117th (-14.7)
2024 projection (as of May): 5.8 average wins, 105th in SP+ (-11.4)
In Trent Dilfer’s first season at UAB after jumping from the high school coaching ranks, the Blazers’ offense showed plenty of signs of life. Quarterback Jacob Zeno threw for 3,126 yards, and UAB scored over 28 points six times despite red zone issues. So what was the problem? The defense, which ranked in the top 40 as recently as 2020, was just about the worst in FBS. Dilfer brought coordinator Sione Ta’ufo’ou with him from Lipscomb Academy, and the most diplomatic thing you can say is that there were some growing pains. They finished 132nd in defensive SP+. Out of 133 teams.
Zeno and a vastly experienced line should power another solid offensive performance, and we’re very much in “almost literally can’t get worse” territory with the defense. If the Blazers simply defend at a top-100 or so level, they’ll win quite a few more games against a schedule that features only three projected top-70 opponents.
2022: 8-5 record, 61st in SP+ (+2.3 adjusted PPG)
2023: 2-10, 111th (-12.8)
2024 projection (as of May): 6.7 average wins, 99th in SP+ (-10.6)
After slowly building something respectable at ECU, Mike Houston watched the boulder roll down the hill last fall. The main culprit? A vanishing offense. The defense was mostly the same under exciting, young defensive coordinator Blake Harrell, but the Pirates plummeted from 33rd to 124th in offensive SP+. They were held to 13 points or fewer in half their games, they went 0-4 in one-score finishes (thanks in part to awful turnovers luck, which we’ll discuss shortly), and the bottom fell out.
The defense should again be a bright spot, and Houston predictably raided the transfer portal for upgrades throughout the roster. It appears either Jake Garcia (Missouri) or Katin Houser (Michigan State) will start at QB, and the skill corps has quite a few new names from power conferences. After a rough early schedule, ECU is a projected favorite in five of its last seven games. They should be able to generate some momentum again.
Turnover luck
The bounce of the pointy ball determines a healthy amount of what we might consider overachievement or underachievement in a given year. While you can impact your own turnover margin to some degree with how well you teach ball security and ball pursuit, how aggressively you go after the opponent’s quarterback, how aggressive your own offense is, etc., there’s still a massive amount of fortune involved, and in every given season some teams are far luckier than others.
Based on national averages for fumble recoveries (defenses have recovered about 52% of fumbles over the past few seasons) and passes defended (there’s typically about one interception for every four pass breakups), we can come up with an expected turnovers figure for each team. Compare one’s expected turnover margin with their actual turnover margin, and you get a clear sense of who was maybe a bit too fortunate, or not nearly fortunate enough, in 2023.
Among the breakthrough and bounce-back candidates listed above, Tennessee and Virginia Tech benefited pretty significantly from turnovers luck. That could have helped the Vols avoid a larger drop-off (they were 2-0 in one-score finishes), though it probably didn’t mean much to the Hokies’ bottom line (even with the help, they were 0-4 in one-scores). Colorado was at +0.4 per game, too, which is at least a slight red flag.
On the more positive end, ECU and UAB likely won’t be held back as much by poor bounces, which should make bounce-back seasons at least slightly more likely. Cincinnati and Georgia Tech were each held back a tad by bad bounces, too.
Overall, it probably isn’t surprising that two of last year’s College Football Playoff teams (Michigan and Texas) were in the top 10 in turnover luck — even awesome teams need some good bounces here and there — and it’s even more impressive that Washington went 14-1 and won a ton of close games when you realize the god of turnovers wasn’t particularly kind.
Nebraska’s poor fortune has seemed endless of late. Not only did the Huskers go 1-5 in one-score finishes last season, bringing them to 2-13 in such games since the start of 2021 — they also had some of the worst turnover luck in the country. In theory this will shift at some point, though NU seems to be going through an extended run of smiting at the moment.