This year is going to be a for MMA. Even with the sport having just a limited number of events already booked, there is plenty to look forward to.
The UFC is set to host its 300th pay-per-view event in Las Vegas in April. The PFL stated its intentions to put together its first crossover event with Bellator MMA after acquiring the promotion last November. The event is expected to feature PFL champions taking on Bellator champions.
The UFC’s women’s bantamweight division will crown its first champion since Amanda Nunes‘ retirement after UFC 289 last June. Conor McGregor has hinted he will end a nearly three-year stint away from the Octagon. Former UFC heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou will put his PFL debut on hold to take on another boxing superstar, Anthony Joshua, on March 8. And that’s just a few of the big moments we can look forward to.
Brett Okamoto, Carlos Contreras Legaspi, Jeff Wagenheim and former UFC fighters Daniel Cormier and Chael Sonnen offer up their 2024 bold predictions.
Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon ‘Chito’ Vera II will be Fight of the Year
Okamoto: Trying to predict the fight of the year in January is like throwing at a dartboard that consists of 1,000 numbers. Nearly any fight on any night can become something special in this sport. But we’re supposed to be bold, right? So, by the year’s end, we will call the UFC 299 headliner the best fight of 2024.
For starters, there will be a huge amount of buzz going into this fight. The backstory of their first meeting in 2020 combined with whatever antics will go on during fight week will turn this rematch into one of the most anticipated fights of the year.
And then, once it starts, I think we’ll see two guys at their very best who match up extremely well. Both fighters have effective offense. And both have demonstrated plenty of mental and physical toughness in their careers, so we will see both overcome some adversity. I think we’re going to see momentum changes.
The first time they fought in 2020, O’Malley and Vera were 25 and 27 years old, respectively. Since then, they’ve turned into bona fide headliners. O’Malley has even won a title. They have familiarity, which should also bring out better versions of both. And in addition to being great fighters, they’re both great entertainers. Antics and mental warfare will lead up to and during this fight. It’s going to be fascinating and it’s going to be the best fight of the year.
Francis Ngannou won’t fight in the cage this year
Legaspi: For this one, we can blame Tyson Fury, who hit the canvas in Ngannou’s first professional boxing match, or Deontay Wilder for his December defeat. However, the fact is that the fight between Ngannou and Joshua will compete with Fury vs. Oleksandr Usyk, at least in media attention, as the biggest of the year in the category.
PFL has been too flexible with Ngannou’s MMA contract and there’s no foreseeable fight that could match the scale of opportunities he is receiving in the heavyweight boxing scene. Even with a loss to Joshua, Ngannou could still secure another significant purse in Saudi Arabia in the second half of the year.
PFL’s guaranteed payment for Ngannou’s opponent might be appealing to a top 10 UFC free agent in the coming months, but I don’t see a fight of that magnitude with the heavyweights from the PFL or Bellator roster in the near future. I believe Ngannou will stay in the ring in 2024 while continuing as an ambassador for PFL.
Dana White will abandon Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic, and book Jones vs. Tom Aspinall
Wagenheim: This matchup reshuffling has no place in a collection of “bold” predictions, really, but since we don’t have a “stating the obvious” story in the works, it’ll have to go here. Jones vs. Aspinall is the title fight to make; is there anyone other than White (and maybe Miocic) who disagrees? And yet, there is one bold thing about my prediction: It calls for flexibility from the UFC CEO, who tends to dig in his heels when someone questions his matchups.
But I think White eventually will relent. He was a fight fan before taking charge of the UFC, and he has always leaned on “the best fight the best” as the mantra of his promotion. Right now, the two best heavyweights in the UFC are Jones and Aspinall. Deep down, White knows that.
This is not to discredit the legacy of Miocic, an all-time great with more title defenses than any heavyweight champ in UFC history. But title bouts need to be about the here and now. If White wants to book a legacy fight, he should be concerned with which fight can shine the most glorious light on Jones. Would it enhance Jones’ legacy to beat up a 41-year-old whose last fight — a KO loss — was nearly three years ago? Not at all. But let’s see if Jones can fend off the best of the new breed of heavyweights. That’d be a GOAT-worthy accomplishment.
There will be another UFC champ vs. champ fight
Cormier: We will see someone challenge another championship belt this year. It could be Islam Makhachev, the lightweight champ, moving up to 170 pounds to face welterweight title holder Leon Edwards. Or, Edwards going up to middleweight to take on the winner of Sean Strickland vs. Dricus Du Plessis. And we can’t rule out the possibility of strawweight champion Zhang Weili moving up to women’s flyweight to challenge Alexa Grasso for her title. Either way, one of those champs will get their shot at a second belt.
Makhachev is the one who is most likely to get that opportunity, simply because a matchup against Edwards would be viewed as a much closer fight by oddsmakers than any fight the UFC could put together with Makhachev facing fellow lightweights such as Charles Oliveira, Justin Gaethje or Justin Poirier. Makhachev would be heavily favored in a bout against either of those fighters. However, I think the champion most deserving of a chance to claim double-champ status is Edwards.
Edwards has already beaten the last generation of welterweight greats. He beat former champion and one of the best welterweights of all time, Kamaru Usman, to claim the title. Then, he beat Usman again in his first title defense. Lastly, he successfully defended the title against Colby Covington to end the year in 2023. If Edwards beats Belal Muhammad, who is expected to be the next challenger for the belt, Edwards will have earned his shot at a second championship.
Don’t expect to see Conor McGregor in the Octagon
Sonnen: Chael Sonnen will be undefeated in 2024. Conor McGregor will also be undefeated in 2024. Both for the same reason — neither will fight anyone in 2024.
Our only source about McGregor fighting, at this point, is McGregor. We are choosing to believe that he is fighting Michael Chandler on June 29, during International Fight Week.
That same source told us one week ago, with Cristiano Ronaldo as a witness, that he would be boxing Manny Pacquiao next. The holdup with the alleged boxing match is the same thing holding up the alleged UFC fight — there is no agreed-upon weight class. Don’t expect to see McGregor in action this year.
Tatiana Suarez will fight for at least one belt
Legaspi: Grasso and Weili started the year as the UFC’s only women’s champions. With Nunes’s retirement and Valentina Shevchenko‘s recent results in back-to-back fights against Grasso, the UFC will see a shift in its top women’s fighters.
Suarez could be the promotion’s next star with a breakout year in 2024. Injuries kept her out of action from 2019 to 2023, but since returning to the Octagon last February, she has proven dominant at both flyweight and strawweight. It depends on UFC’s plans, but it seems imminent that we’ll see her fighting for a strawweight title this year, and it wouldn’t be risky to think she might attempt a second belt. Suarez already has a history with Grasso, whom she defeated in 2017, and her grappling can neutralize even prodigies like Erin Blanchfield.
If her health allows, this could be the year we witness Suarez’s true potential.
Jon Jones will retire (and unretire)
Okamoto: Jones is no fool when it comes to decisions regarding his fighting career. He’s the greatest fighter of all time, a two-division UFC champion and one of the company’s top draws going into 2024. And that means he has the leverage to call his shots.
Let’s just be real. If you’re Jon Jones, what is more appealing? A heavyweight title unification bout against a young killer in Aspinall or a legacy fight against a 41-year-old Miocic? Jones will make more money fighting Miocic than Aspinall, and (respectfully to Miocic, he’s the heavyweight GOAT) it’s the easier matchup.
I think Jones fights Miocic in the second half of 2024, announces his retirement, sees how things shake out in the heavyweight division, allows a guy like Aspinall time to build his name and his selling power, and then returns to the sport in the second half of 2025 for another payday.
This was also my bold prediction for the second half of 2023, but a torn pectoral tendon forced Jones to withdraw from a previously scheduled bout vs. Miocic for UFC 295. Jones is the UFC’s heavyweight champ, but he’s not your average titleholder. His goal is not to defend this title and prove anything to anybody. His goal is to get paid and keep that pristine record intact.
Spanish-speaking Latin America will have at least two champions by the year’s end
Legaspi: The era of Mexican champions passed after UFC 290 when Yair Rodriguez lost to Alexander Volkanovski, and Brandon Moreno fell to Alexandre Pantoja on the same night. However, 2024 presents numerous opportunities for Spanish-speaking Latin American fighters to claim belts.
Grasso awaits the date for her second flyweight title defense, while “Chito” Vera seeks a second victory against “Suga” Sean to bring the title to Ecuador for the first time. After them, Moreno can emerge as a clear contender in his February 24 fight against Amir Albazi. If Moreno secures a win, the current champion, Alexandre Pantoja, knows that’s the division’s biggest fight.
Rodríguez faces a much tougher path. But if he defeats Brian Ortega, who is still a top featherweight, and if Ilia Topuria upsets Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway moves up to lightweight to pursue a big money fight, Rodriguez might find a way back into title contention.
Although it seems distant, Loopy Godínez, who fought and won four times this past year, could be a contender before 2024 ends. In March, the UFC matched her against a ranked opponent, Virna Jandiroba.